1% of people using Mobile phones – “It’s in its infancy”
1% of people using the Internet – “It’s in its infancy”
1% of people using Social media – “It’s in its infancy”
1% of people using #Bitcoin – “Bitcoin is the biggest bubble the world has ever seen” pic.twitter.com/xtUlSirbA8
— RenegadeinvestorUK (@sharkybit) 3 January 2018
The Global War on Cash
[Editors Note: Below is an excellent Infographic which gives a great overview of the escalating global war on physical cash.
In my opinion the war on cash is totalitarianism dressed up as a moral crusade. If governments genuinely cared about drug money laundering, terrorism funding and money laundering they would:
- End the war on drugs (Which escalates drug prices on the Black market and incentivises drug trade)
- End fiat currency which facilitates the funding of large scale foreign conflicts (A major catalyst for terrorism) without direct taxation of the general citizenry, and political repercussions.
- Actually criminally prosecute banks who have carried out large scale money laundering.
(Point 2 is why people believe that Bitcoin in the long run could actually end large scale military conflicts)
Whilst I dont like fiat currency, the risk of removing the physical aspect of currency and making it purely digital risks dangerously centralising control of global currency with Banks and Governments which will no doubt overtime, turn into a draconian knightmare in light of the ongoing global financial crisis.
As well as yet another fundamental reason to invest, Bitcoin offers people a way to escape the war on cash, this move towards totalitarianism and a way to enable a decentralised financial system which upholds Sound money, liberty, freedom and Volutaryism as core principles.
Whilst I dont condone any illegal use of Bitcoin as described above, as a society I believe we need to address the core reasons for these certain nefarious uses of cash, rather than thinking a ban on cash is going to resolve these problems]
Whilst there is a lot of noise around whether Gold has just transitioned into the next stage of its secular Bull Market, or whether the recent $1300 spot price is just a bounce before Gold heads down below $1000.
There are two charts that IMO can help provide clarity and remove the noise from the manipulation and shenanigans in the paper gold market.
The first is Gold and U.S Debt correlation – As you can see from the chart below, in recent times. there was a very high 93.7% positive correlation between U,S Debt levels and the Gold price.
The fact that we are now seeing such huge divergence between the gold price and US debt levels indicates that Gold priced in U.S Dollars is likely trading well under its fair market value.
Even discounting all the other numerous fundamentals for owning gold right now; including global debasement of fiat currency, huge geopolitical risks, central bank lunacy and slowing global macro. Based purely on this chart if this correlation were to correct Gold should currently be trading North of $2000 oz.
The second is previous Fed Balance sheet and Gold Price correlation –
Whilst the first and second charts are linked through QE to some degree, you can clearly see again that up until QE3 there was a very high positive correlation between the Fed balance sheet and the gold price.
However, since QE3 which has taken the fed balance sheet to a whopping $4.5tr and a balance sheet which has no chance of ever being unwound, without causing global financial turmoil.
You can see again that there is now huge divergence, which indicates that if the correlation was to normalise, Gold should be trading somewhere in the $2500 oz region.
Whenever I hear a lot of noise around the paper price of Gold, I simply keep these charts in mind, because at some point precious metals are going to correct back to their fair market value and based on the trend of Global debt which has increased by $57 trillion since 2007; IMO its going to be somewhere well North of its current $1300 oz.
- “The hidden wealth of some of the world’s most prominent leaders, politicians and celebrities has been revealed by an unprecedented leak of millions of documents that show the myriad ways in which the rich can exploit secretive offshore tax regimes”
- “Though there is nothing unlawful about using offshore companies, the files raise fundamental questions about the ethics of such tax havens – and the revelations are likely to provoke urgent calls for reforms of a system that critics say is arcane and open to abuse”
- “It’s the folks who don’t understand cryptocurrency and the folks who don’t understand Bitcoin that seem the craziest these days. It’s a fascinating flip”
- “But there’s one thing to remember in every investment scenario: objections are a buying signal. Say what you want about short-sighted folks stuck in the past: investors know that something is brewing.
Whilst its easy to get fixated on the speculative price movements of Bitcoin as a main indicator of the health of the Bitcoin economy (as we often see in the Main Stream Media).
In my opinion two of the most important metrics I personally pay close attention to in the is the direction of Venture capital (VC) and the number of Bitcoin transactions per day.
Both these metrics are very important indicators of the current health of the Bitcoin network & growing utility. In addition they are good for predicting future growth of the network that will ultimately affect the Bitcoin spot price in the future.
The chart below shows growing divergence between total VC investment and the market price of Bitcoin. The current and potential development of infrastructure, services and utility from VC investment could be starting to indicate that the current spot price of Bitcoin is currently trading, or soon could be trading under the Net Asset Value (NAV) of the Bitcoin economy.
— CB Insights (@CBinsights) July 31, 2015
In addition to this, since the 2014 Bitcoin highs which saw Bitcoin trade over a $1000, the number of Bitcoin transactions per day on a year to year basis are up around 100% from 2014. This is a really important metric showing that Bitcoin use is becoming more and more widespread.
Should these statisics continue to climb in the current manor, we should eventually see more and more of this activity and productivity from VC investment being priced into the market.